CDC predicts sharp increase in diabetes without diet, more exercise

Sunday, June 22, 2003

June 23, 2003

NEW ORLEANS - One-third of U.S. children born in 2000 and an even greater percentage of minorities will develop diabetes in their lifetimes without improvements in diet and exercise, according to a studypresented by the CDC at an American Diabetes Associationmeeting in New Orleans, USA Today reported last week.

The prediction, which is about three times greater than the ADA's current estimate, is based on data from the annual National Health Interview Survey of 360,000 people surveyed between 1984 and 2000, Census Bureau data and a previous study of diabetes as a cause of death. Under the new projection, between 45 million and 50 million U.S. residents could have diabetes by 2050. Currently, 17 million U.S. residents - about 6% of the population - have the disease. In the past decade, thenumber of diagnosed cases of diabetes has risen by nearly 50%.

Because of a combination of genetic predisposition and higher obesity rates, minorities have a greater risk of developing diabetes than whites;53% of Hispanic women, 45% of Hispanic men, 49% of black women and 40% of black men are expected to develop the disease, compared with 31% of white women and 27% of white men.

The risk of developing diabetes is greater for women, who have a 39% likelihood of developing the disease, than for men, who have a 33% chance, because women have a higher life expectancy rate and therefore have more time to develop the disease.