Software predicts future

RALEIGH, N.C. - You may never have heard of “predictive modeling,” but if Misys Healthcare Systems has its way, that'll change. The home healthcare software developer recently added a predictive modeling feature to its offering. The feature uses 10 years of Medicare-required patient assessment data—culled from millions of home health (OASIS) intake questionnaires—to predict what kind of care, including HME, new home healthcare patients may require. “Now, if you admit a new patient with a pattern of answers similar to an earlier patient who ended up in the hospital emergency room, you will be advised by the computer that this looks like a person at risk,” said Jeneane Brian, Misys' clinical director for homecare. Brian previously ran hospice and home health agencies that used a lot of home medical equipment. By using Misys' predictive modeling program, nurses no longer have to guess or rely on experience alone to determine what kind of care and medical equipment may best serve a patient, she said. “With the train wrecks, you are going to know if they need crutches or a wheelchair,” Brian said. “The people who are subject to falls but don't seem like that when you talk to them, those are the ones you need to know about.” Next up: Adapting the program to the needs of other healthcare professionals. For example, a discharge planner could use predictive modeling to help determine if a patient should be discharged to a hospice, a skilled nursing facility, a rehab center or sent home, Brian said.